Saturday, January 20, 2007

Australian Open (almost) Mid-Assessment

I'm kind of pissed the rain delayed the completion of the 3rd round last night...I wanted to do this assessment with the full slates of 16s for both the men and the women...instead we have 18 men and 19 women left. But I'll do the best I can.

Men.
Some musings...
If (12)Tommy Haas and (13)Tomas Berdych win their matches, 14 of the top 16 will have made it to the round of 16. Only (4)Ivan Ljubicic (taken out by Mardy Fish in the first round) and (11) Marcos Baghdatis (eliminated by Gael Monfils) will be missing. With a strong starting men's field, originally including home favorite (19) Lleyton Hewitt and 2005 champ (26) Marat Safin, this Australian Open is running surprisingly true-to-form. With that said, I'm predicting a few upsets in this upcoming round. The most interesting matches:

(18) Richard Gasquet vs (7) Tommy Robredo - Gasquet is one of my favorite players, so I'm a little biased, but doesn't it seem like he's having a great tournament? He's broken out of his struggles last year and his game is definitely on the rise. He's one of a handful of players to have beaten Roger Federer in the past two years, so that Gasquet-Federer quarterfinal would be way more interesting than a Robredo-Federer matchup.

Mardy Fish vs (16) David Ferrer - can Fish, one of only two unseeded men remaining, continue his run? This is a great opportunity for him which I think he can seize, as he avoids both a top-5 player and one of the younger guns.

(8)Nalbandian vs (12) Tommy Haas - I'm projecting that Haas beats unseeded Mayer, then comes back on short rest to take out Nalbandian.

(5) James Blake vs (10) Fernando Gonzalez - This would be a great time for Blake to reach the quarterfinals somewhere else than Flushing Meadows, wouldn't it?

(15) Andy Murray vs (2) Rafa Nadal - Two young guys, one with a ton of success and one with just a little. Who's playing better? I say it's Murray. Plus, there's isn't on clay. This one will be interesting.

Semifinalists - (1) Federer, (6) Roddick, (12) Haas, (15) Murray

Women.
It'd be really nice to see Ashley Harkleroad break through and beat (15) Hantuchova to make the fourth round, but I'm still skeptical. How much longer until Serena's train derails? The American women were close this week. Serena and Ashley were lucky. Luck unfortunately eventually runs out though...
Interesting matchups:

Serena Williams vs (11) Jelena Jankovic - see above. Jankovic is no Petrova, and she seems to be about as on top of her game as she can be, which Serena may or may not be.

Lucie Safarova vs (2) Amelie Mauresmo - Is a fourth-round double-bagel possible? Mauresmo's had the easiest road of anyone in the tournament, by far. 44th ranked Perry, 38th ranked Poutchkova, 83rd ranked Birnerova, 70th ranked Safarova. Even the pre-2006 Mauresmo would have cruised.

(1) Sharapova vs (22) Vera Zvonareva - Zvonareva is looking lately more like the top 10 player she briefly was. Sharapova has had to play in some of the worst conditions so far. Will fatigue be a factor? I doubt it, because Sharapova is probably the healthiest player on tour.

(6) Hingis vs (9) Safina / (19) Li - I think that Li will defeat Safina, and will then lose to Hingis. Hingis has also had a nice path to the quarterfinals.

Semifinalists: (1) Sharapova, (2) Mauresmo, (3) Kuznetsova, (4) Clijsters.
I wanted to pick (16) Peer over Kuznetsova, but I just don't think it'll happen.

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