My 65

Auto Bids (in a rough order)
1. Ohio State
2. UNC
3. Florida
4. Kansas
5. Georgetown
6. Oregon
7. Memphis
8. UNLV
9. Creighton
10. New Mexico ST
11. VCU
12. Winthrop
13. Gonzaga
14. Oral Roberts
15. Wright ST
16. MiamiU
17. Long Beach ST
18. Belmont
19. GW
20. Davidson
21. UPenn
22. Albany
23. Holy Cross
24. EKentucky
25. Niagara
26. NTexas
27. Weber ST
28. CConn ST
29. FL A&M
30. Jackson ST
31. TX A&M CC

At-Larges (In no order until the end)
32. SIU
33. Butler
34. Maryland
35. Arizona
36. UCLA
37. Tennessee
38. Marquette
39. Kentucky
40. TX A&M
41. Notre Dame
42. UVA
43. Duke
44. Villanova
45. Nevada
46. Indiana
47. Louisville
48. WA State
49. Vanderbilt
50. Mich ST
51. BC
52. USC
53. BYU
54. Pitt
55. Xavier
56. VA Tech
57. GA Tech
58. Purdue
59. Illinois
60. Wisconsin
61. Texas

Last Four In
62. TX Tech
63. Syracuse
64. Stanford
65. Drexel


Just Barely Out-
MO State
Arkansas
App ST
KS State

Old Dominion
Air Force
FSU

Comm240 Assignment #1

Results by record, as of 02/28

2 Losses

Nevada (26-2)

3 Losses

Ohio State (26-3)

Memphis (25-3)

UCLA (25-3)

4 Losses

Wisconsin (26-4)

Kansas (26-4)

Davidson (26-4)

Winthrop (25-4)

interesting bubble links

Bubble Watch on ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=49

CBS Sportsline Field Projection: http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/9805295

Pat Forde of ESPN.com recently made a point that conferences with tournaments where not all teams qualify makes them less exciting. However, I feel that whatever excitement is lost in the tournament is made up for during the regular season. It makes each conference game that much more important, instead of just affecting a team's seeding in a 3-4 day tournament that may or may not mean anything for more than one team. In a major conference like the Big East, only the top 12 of 16 teams qualify for the Big East tournament. So in February, those teams at the bottom are scrambling for wins just to qualify. It raises the effort of the players and the meaning of the games.
Take the Ivy League, which is the only Division I conference that does not have a tournament and instead awards its NCAA tourney berth to the regular season champion. To me, evaluating a team over two months of games is much more indicative than over a few days of games. So this makes sense and makes for exciting basketball. Each game has meaning in the race for the regular-season conference title, which actually means something other than denotation.
While I love the 'conference tournament season,' I would like to see a few more leagues give their NCAA tourney berths to the regular season champion, and other leagues cut back on the teams that qualify for their conference tournament. I mean, after a 1-15 conference record, does Iona deserve a "second" chance to win the national title? Not in my book.

Week 16 AP Poll Percentage Ratings

Wisconsin 98
Ohio State 96
Florida 92
UCLA 90

UNC 82

Kansas 78
Memphis 77
TX A&M 71

WA State 65
Pitt 65
Nevada 64

G-town 56
SIU 53

Air Force 46

Butler 39

Marquette 28
Vandy 23
Duke 23

Texas 18
L'ville 16
BYU 15
WVU 13
Oregon 12
UVA 10
Bama 10

USC 9
VA Tech 7
OK State 7
Kentucky 6
Stanford 5
Winthrop 4
BC 4
Arizona 3
Maryland 3
Notre Dame 2

BracketBuster Analysis

While the BracketBuster event is really all for the single team's profile, I thought it would be fun to look at which conerence had the best record of the day.

I counted teams eligible if they had just TWO teams participate, meaning that the America East Conference (0-1) and Conference USA (Memphis, 1-0) are not included in the list.

Conference records for BracketBusters

Horizon	7-2	.778
WAC	6-2	.750
Big Sky	2-1	.667
MAA	5-4	.556
MVC	5-4	.554
MAC	6-6	.500
WCC	1-1	.500
CAA	5-6	.455
Big West	3-5	.375
Big South	1-2	.333
Patriot	1-2	.333
OVC	3-8	.273
Mid-Con	0-2	.000
Southland	0-2	.000

A few thoughts...
The Horizon League's record is quite surprising, especially given the fact that one of their two losses is nationally-ranked Butler! I've heard a lot about Butler, and maybe about the two teams that Butler lost to, but that's about it. If any team other than Butler comes out of this league, they could be a dangerous opponent in the tournament.

The Missouri Valley really played like a mid-major conference today. Most of their teams had marquee matchups, to be sure, but a 5-4 record and lumped into the middle of the above list is not anything to boast about.

Seed Quest Update 02/13/07

This update, I have added those teams with four losses because they are now justifiably on the radar.

2 Losses
Wisconsin (24-2)
Florida (23-2)
Nevada (22-2)

3 Losses
Butler (23-3)
UNC (22-3)
Ohio State(22-3)
TX A&M (21-3)
Memphis (21-3)
UCLA (21-3)

4 Losses
Pitt (22-4)
Davidson (22-4)
WA State (21-4)
Air Force (21-4)
Kansas (21-4)
Winthrop (21-4)

Week 15 AP Poll

Seed Quest Update

notes-
Wow, this weekend really decimated the list. I expected to add a "4-Loss" group by the end of the month, but it looks as if that group will become significant by next week. We shall see.
results of 02/04/07

2 Losses
Wisconsin (22-2)
Butler (22-2)
Florida (21-2)
Nevada (21-2)
UCLA (20-2)

3 Losses
Pitt (20-3)
Ohio State (20-3)
Air Force (20-3)
UNC (20-3)
TX A&M (19-3)
Memphis (19-3)

2007 Power Conference Tournaments

Conference	Dates	# of Teams	Time of Championship Game
ACC	March 8-11	12	1 pm
Big East	March 7-10	12*
Big Ten	March 8-11	11	3:30 pm
Big 12	March 8-11	12	3 pm
Pac-10	March 7-10	10	6 pm
SEC	March 8-11	12	1 pm

My basketball rankings 01/29/07

1. Wisconsin (21-1)
2. UNC (19-2)
3. Florida (19-2)
4. UCLA (18-2)
5. Ohio State (18-3)
6. Kansas (19-3)
7. Pitt (20-3)
8. Duke (18-3)
9. TX A&M (17-3)
10. Oregon (19-2)
11. OK State (18-3)
12. Nevada (19-2)
13. Butler (20-2)
14. Memphis (17-3)
15. Marquette (19-4)
16. VA Tech (16-5)
17. Clemson (18-4)
18. Notre Dame(17-4)
19. Arizona (14-6)
20. UNLV (18-4)
21. Air Force (19-3)
22. Mich ST (17-5)
23. WA State (17-4)
24. VCU (19-3)
25. Kentucky (16-5)

2007 Men's Basketball Conference Tournaments

Three notes:
1) Last date listed is the date of the championship game
2) Teams with an asterik (*) next to the number of teams indicates that not all teams qualify for the tournament
3) The Ivy League has no conference tournament

Conference	Dates	# of Teams
America East	March 2-4, 10	9
Atlantic Sun	March 1-3	8*
Atlantic 10	March 7-10	12*
Big Sky	March 3, 6-7	?
Big South	Feb 27, Mar 1, 3	8
Big West	March 7-10	8
CAA	March 2-5	12
Conference USA	March 7-10	12
Horizon League	Feb 27, Mar 2,3,6	9
MAAC	March 2-5	10
Mid-American	March 7-10	12
Mid-Con	March 3-6	8
Mid-Eastern Ath	March 6-10	11
Missouri Valley	March 1-4	10
Mountain West	March 6,8-10	9
Northeast	March 1,4,7	8*
Ohio Valley	Feb 27, Mar 2-3	8*
Patriot	Feb 28, Mar 4,9	8
Southern	Feb 28, Mar 1,3	11
Southland	March 8,9,11	8*
SWAC	March 7-10	8*
Sun Belt	Feb 28, Mar 4-6	13
West Coast	March 2-5	8
Western Athletic	March 6, 8-10	9

Another Seed Quest Update

1 Loss
Wisconsin (21-1)

2 Losses
Butler (20-2)
UNC (19-2)
Florida (19-2)
Nevada (19-2)
Oregon (19-2)
UCLA (18-2)

3 Losses
Pitt (20-3)
Kansas (19-3)
Air Force (19-3)
VCU (19-3)
Ohio State (18-3)
Duke (18-3)
OK State (18-3)
TX A&M (17-3)
Memphis (17-3)

Seed Quest Update

results of 01/26/07

0 Losses

1 Loss
Wisconsin (20-1)
UCLA (18-1)

2 Losses
Air Force (19-2)
UNC (18-2)
Butler (18-2)
Oregon (18-2)
Florida (18-2)
Nevada (18-2)

3 Losses
Clemson (18-3)
Pitt (18-3)
Duke (17-3)
Ohio State (17-3)
Kansas (17-3)
OK State (17-3)
VCU (17-3)
WA State (17-3)
TX A&M (16-3)
Memphis (16-3)

Super Bowl Matchup

So, I have to admit that I had predicted a New Orleans - New England matchup in the Super Bowl, which I was wrong on both accounts, but you can't really fault me. The Saints beat themselves with the turnovers (well, not if you've been watching Chicago's D all year because that's what they do...) and New England collapsed and still made it close.

Yet, in the end it will be the Chicago Bears vs the Indianapolis Colts in Miami. One of my friends who goes to Purdue remarked that it is a great time to live in between the two cities. This is a great match-up so all those TV ratings people can't be too worried about having two teams from the Midwest.

Peyton Manning turned the ball over a ton again, at least in the first half. I think Chicago's D wins them the Super Bowl.
Bears 24, Colts 17.

Seed Quest

History has shown that to get a number one seed in the NCAA tournament, you not only have to defeat quality opponents, you can't lose to them very often either. It's often crowded at the top and each loss is another chink in the armor that will be picked apart come tourney time. With that said, I am trying to study the "art" of how teams make it to that number one line. Each team belongs in a tier according to the number of losses they have accumulated. I want to eventually find out, after going through previous years' seedings, just how many losses it takes to be removed from consideration.
Here are the current tiers for this season, results of 01/20/07

0 Losses

1 Loss
Wisconsin (19-1)
Oregon (18-1)
UCLA (17-1)

2 Losses
Air Force (18-2)
Clemson (18-2)
UNC (17-2)
Florida (17-2)
Pitt (17-2)
Butler (17-2)
Nevada (17-2)
TX A&M (16-2)

3 Losses
Duke (16-3)
Ohio State (16-3)
WA State (16-3)
Kansas (16-3)
OK State (16-3)
VCU (16-3)
Memphis (15-3)
Notre Dame (15-3)
Alabama (15-3)

Australian Open (almost) Mid-Assessment

I'm kind of pissed the rain delayed the completion of the 3rd round last night...I wanted to do this assessment with the full slates of 16s for both the men and the women...instead we have 18 men and 19 women left. But I'll do the best I can.

Men.
Some musings...
If (12)Tommy Haas and (13)Tomas Berdych win their matches, 14 of the top 16 will have made it to the round of 16. Only (4)Ivan Ljubicic (taken out by Mardy Fish in the first round) and (11) Marcos Baghdatis (eliminated by Gael Monfils) will be missing. With a strong starting men's field, originally including home favorite (19) Lleyton Hewitt and 2005 champ (26) Marat Safin, this Australian Open is running surprisingly true-to-form. With that said, I'm predicting a few upsets in this upcoming round. The most interesting matches:

(18) Richard Gasquet vs (7) Tommy Robredo - Gasquet is one of my favorite players, so I'm a little biased, but doesn't it seem like he's having a great tournament? He's broken out of his struggles last year and his game is definitely on the rise. He's one of a handful of players to have beaten Roger Federer in the past two years, so that Gasquet-Federer quarterfinal would be way more interesting than a Robredo-Federer matchup.

Mardy Fish vs (16) David Ferrer - can Fish, one of only two unseeded men remaining, continue his run? This is a great opportunity for him which I think he can seize, as he avoids both a top-5 player and one of the younger guns.

(8)Nalbandian vs (12) Tommy Haas - I'm projecting that Haas beats unseeded Mayer, then comes back on short rest to take out Nalbandian.

(5) James Blake vs (10) Fernando Gonzalez - This would be a great time for Blake to reach the quarterfinals somewhere else than Flushing Meadows, wouldn't it?

(15) Andy Murray vs (2) Rafa Nadal - Two young guys, one with a ton of success and one with just a little. Who's playing better? I say it's Murray. Plus, there's isn't on clay. This one will be interesting.

Semifinalists - (1) Federer, (6) Roddick, (12) Haas, (15) Murray

Women.
It'd be really nice to see Ashley Harkleroad break through and beat (15) Hantuchova to make the fourth round, but I'm still skeptical. How much longer until Serena's train derails? The American women were close this week. Serena and Ashley were lucky. Luck unfortunately eventually runs out though...
Interesting matchups:

Serena Williams vs (11) Jelena Jankovic - see above. Jankovic is no Petrova, and she seems to be about as on top of her game as she can be, which Serena may or may not be.

Lucie Safarova vs (2) Amelie Mauresmo - Is a fourth-round double-bagel possible? Mauresmo's had the easiest road of anyone in the tournament, by far. 44th ranked Perry, 38th ranked Poutchkova, 83rd ranked Birnerova, 70th ranked Safarova. Even the pre-2006 Mauresmo would have cruised.

(1) Sharapova vs (22) Vera Zvonareva - Zvonareva is looking lately more like the top 10 player she briefly was. Sharapova has had to play in some of the worst conditions so far. Will fatigue be a factor? I doubt it, because Sharapova is probably the healthiest player on tour.

(6) Hingis vs (9) Safina / (19) Li - I think that Li will defeat Safina, and will then lose to Hingis. Hingis has also had a nice path to the quarterfinals.

Semifinalists: (1) Sharapova, (2) Mauresmo, (3) Kuznetsova, (4) Clijsters.
I wanted to pick (16) Peer over Kuznetsova, but I just don't think it'll happen.

Fantasy Football 2006 Champions: Columbus Tigers

I would just like to gloat for a minute, after my team, the Columbus Tigers, captured the Cbus FGZ league Championships in dramatic fashion, overcoming Tiki Barber's monstrous 47 pt performance.

I won 174-165 and finished with a final record of 12-3, including a 7-game winning streak.

No one could overcome my running back trio of LaDanian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, and Willie Parker.

Carson Palmer finished as the 5th-best QB.

My best move though, all season was picking up TE Tony Scheffler right as he got hot the last two weeks. That move probably won me the championship.

My WRs, Roy Williams, Darrell Jackson, Donte Stallworth and Jerrico Cotchery all helped me out a little, although Cotchery never seemed to play well when I needed him to. *shrug*

2 of my 3 losses came by a total of 14 pts, the third was the ugly 47-100 loss to the team that finished last in the league, despite a seemingly amazing roster. *shrug2*

aaand that's enough of that. i shall go now to castrate myself to amend for all this hubris.